Wisconsin Governors Race Prediction

We are only a few days away from the Election. 

The race for Governor of Wisconsin is suppose to be a close race and turnout will be the determining factor.

My Predication for the Election? 

I don't really believe that it is as close as everyone thinks it is.  If the Democratic Candidate was a strong Candidate that really made people want to vote for Her then it might be a close election.  However I think this election really has boiled down to those in favor of Scott Walker and those who vote for anyone but Scott Walker.  That doesn't build much enthusiasm to get out the vote for the Democrats.  It will be their hardcore left voters that get out and not a full on get out the vote.

Republicans are fighting to protect a Popular Governor for them.  With over 90% of Republicans likely to vote.  Democrats are just barely over 80% and Independents are sitting just below 80%. 

The Marquette Poll shows the Gender Gap for this election 

Among likely voters, Burke’s lead among women is 49-43 while Walker’s lead among men is 58-36

 The other big factor in the election will be the Independent Voters.  Again the Marquette Poll shows how that stacks up in favor of Gov. Walker.

Likely voters who are independents support Walker over Burke by 52 percent to 37 percent

Lastly taking a look deeper into the numbers, a Majority of Wisconsin Voters believe the State is headed in the right direction.  Historically if Voters feel that way then making a change is not necessary.  Also weighing on the Challenger is the connection between Mary Burke and the President.  His approval ratings are in the 40% range and the perception of Voters that the Country is headed in the wrong direction.

Finish it off with the most telling number for this election in perception of the Candidates themselves.  The poll showed that 63% of Voters felt Gov. Walker was someone who could get things done and only 42% felt that way about Mary Burke.

Taking all of this into consideration, I believe that turnout will have a lot to do with the final results, Walker will re-election without it being all that close.  I think with a large turnout he still wins by 4-6 points.