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Saturday, October 17, 2009

Doing the Stimulus Math - Obama's Job Savings?

With the release of some hard data, the effects of the first wave of President Obama’s stimulus program are now observable. Businesses receiving federal contracts participating in the program reported creating or saving more than 30,383 jobs in the first months of the program, based on less than $16 billion in federal contracts.

ProPublica has done some basic math on the program so far, and calculated scenarios that shed light on the value proposition as outlined by the Obama administration. Following is the ProPublica analysis by Christopher Flavelle:

On Thursday, the government released a flood of data about the stimulus, showing how 9,000 federal contractors spent their stimulus dollars — including the value of the contract, each project’s status, and how much each of the contractor’s five highest-paid officers were paid.

But when it came to presenting that data, Recovery.gov, the government’s official site for stimulus information, highlighted one number in particular, posting it on the site’s main page in large font: “JOBS CREATED/SAVED AS REPORTED BY FEDERAL CONTRACT RECIPIENTS: 30,383.” To make extra certain of getting viewers’ attention, the number itself appears in bright green.

As the economy continues to shed jobs , it’s easy to see why the administration is keen to highlight the number of jobs created by the stimulus. When the numbers were released, Jared Bernstein, the administration’s chief economist, said the job count “exceeds our projections,” adding that it supported the conclusion “that the Recovery Act did indeed create or save about 1 million jobs in its first seven months.”

But do the 30,000 jobs represent a good return? And since the federal contracts for which data was reported this week represent just a sliver of the overall stimulus package, what do they really say about the impact of the stimulus as a whole? - CBS News Story

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